A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
